Iron Ore Port Arrivals Fell by Over 10.5%, Ore Prices Remain Relatively Firm [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures held up well, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 790.5 yuan, up 0.44% WoW. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills remained cautious with limited purchase willingness. Overall market sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, transaction prices for PB fines were 789–795 yuan/mt, up 0–2 yuan/mt WoW; in Hebei, transaction prices for PB fines were 798–802 yuan/mt, up 0–3 yuan/mt WoW.

Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.9 million mt, up 2.6 million mt WoW (an increase of about 7.8%). SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 25.53 million mt, down 3 million mt WoW (a decrease of about 10.5%), with declines in coarse fines, concentrates, and lump ore. Short-term iron ore supply pressure remains relatively small. Coupled with delayed blast furnace maintenance and persistently high hot metal production, fundamental support remains strong. Key factors to monitor include the off-season for the industry, changes in apparent steel demand, and the timing of the inventory turning point.